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DRM will be replaced by more complex schemes with more advanced security, but the end result will be that more people will have access to less content. Fewer people will have secure ways to access content and there will be no justification for paying for a copy of something when the same thing can be obtained for free. The market will shrink and with it the revenues of the major labels. The change in the market will be gradual and companies like Amazon and Netflix will be forced to find new markets where they can make money. They have already begun to adapt. Kindle books are free to read, but they can be purchased via Amazon’s proprietary book store.
DRM is certainly not dead, but it may be that a new model of delivery of content emerges that will find ways to deliver content to users that will eventually turn the business model on its head. The race is already on, with companies like Apple launching services that challenge the underlying economics of the content business model. Amazon’s new magazine Kindle is just one example of how an “all you can eat” approach to content delivery may well be the future of how people read magazines. We already have eBooks, but it is only a matter of time before the content providers shift their focus from DRM to reader-friendly delivery models. Taking the music business as an example, it is likely that the marginal cost of providing a song is so low that the content providers are better off getting the band to agree to sell songs without DRM, rather than going to the extra expense of DRM. This is not a new business model, it is an old one. In the case of music, the labels have always had the clout to get the artists to accept conditions that were not beneficial to the artists.
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